The gas-rich North
In Egypt, Algeria, Libya and Tunisia natural gas supplies over 80% of electricity. Morocco is the outlier: solar and wind are now close to 40% of its installed capacity.
Outlook
The African energy renaissance
Where the megawatts come from today, how fast demand is climbing, and the two futures the modellers keep drawing. Distilled from the African Energy Renaissance report.
279 GW
Operational installed capacity
Live tracking, 2025
70.8 GW
Renewable capacity
Hydro, solar, wind, geothermal, bio
~20 GW
Uncounted backup diesel
The reliability gap
2.5bn
Population by 2050
Demand roughly doubles
The generation mix
Share of electricity generated, late-2024 IEA and Ember estimates.
Natural gas39%
Dominant in North Africa and Nigeria; treated as a "bridge fuel".
Coal27%
Heavily concentrated in South Africa; facing decommissioning pressure.
Hydropower17%
The primary renewable source; huge potential in Central and East Africa.
Oil / diesel7%
Backup and island systems; high cost and high emissions.
Solar PV4%
Fastest growing; costs down about 85% in a decade.
Wind3%
Strong growth in Morocco, Egypt, South Africa and Kenya.
Nuclear2%
Only South Africa today; Egypt's El Dabaa under construction.
Geothermal1%
Kenya and Ethiopia; reliable baseload.
Demand to 2050
Terawatt-hours per year under the IEA Stated Policies scenario against the Sustainable Africa scenario.
2025950 / 1,050 TWh
Stated policies
Sustainable Africa
20301,300 / 1,600 TWh
Stated policies
Sustainable Africa
20402,100 / 3,200 TWh
Stated policies
Sustainable Africa
20503,500 / 6,000 TWh
Stated policies
Sustainable Africa
Four continents in one
The 'African energy mix' is really four regional clusters.
The coal-dependent South
Southern Africa runs on South Africa's Eskom coal fleet. Solar and wind potential is immense, but legacy plant keeps coal central — shifting slowly under the Just Energy Transition Partnership.
The hydro-geothermal East
The greenest mix on the continent. Kenya generates over 90% of its power from geothermal, wind and hydro; Ethiopia is almost entirely hydro-based.
The gas-hydro West
Nigeria, Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire blend domestic gas with hydropower. Gas is about 65% of Nigeria's grid power while decentralised solar fills the off-grid gap.
Structural realities
Four facts that shape every plan drawn on the continent.
The reliability gap
Ageing plant, fuel supply problems and transmission losses mean effective capacity is often 20–30% below nameplate. That gap drives an estimated 20 GW of uncounted backup diesel generation.
The biomass challenge
Wood, charcoal and waste still supply close to half of primary energy in Sub-Saharan Africa, mostly for cooking — with heavy deforestation and household air-pollution costs.
Demand is doubling
Population reaching 2.5 billion by 2050, mega-cities above 20 million people, and AfCFTA-driven industry in cement, steel and mining push demand up faster than anywhere else on earth.
Minerals as leverage
Cobalt, copper, lithium, platinum and manganese underpin the global transition. Refining them locally needs about ten times the power of the surrounding residential demand.
Cost of new electricity
Levelised cost in USD per MWh — 2015 against 2025. Renewables fell while fossil fuels rose.
Utility solar PV$120 → $45/MWh
2015
2025
Onshore wind$95 → $50/MWh
2015
2025
Geothermal$80 → $70/MWh
2015
2025
Large hydro$70 → $65/MWh
2015
2025
CCGT (gas)$85 → $90/MWh
2015
2025
Coal$75 → $95/MWh
2015
2025
Diesel$250 → $280/MWh
2015
2025
How the AESEM logic works
The report's strategy model, in four steps — the same logic behind the calculators here.
- 01
Resource-first
Start from the endowment: irradiation, hydrology, wind class, gas reserves and geothermal gradient decide what is even possible.
- 02
Demand-matched
Match resource against demand shape — industrial baseload, urban peaks or dispersed rural loads all imply different technology.
- 03
Bankability-tested
Score financing risk: currency, offtaker credit, and regulatory stability. Below the threshold, blended finance or guarantees come first.
- 04
Path selection
Output a strategy — "Gas-to-industry bridge", "Dual-track transition", or "Renewables-first leapfrog" — plus a sustainability index score.
Country deep dives
Seven markets that define the range of outcomes.
Egypt
From chronic blackouts to surplus in under a decade: roughly 80% gas, 12% hydro and 8% solar and wind, now targeting green-hydrogen exports through the Suez corridor.
Nigeria
65% gas, 35% hydro on paper, but distribution losses and offtaker arrears cap delivered power. The Energy Transition Plan leans on gas plus distributed solar.
Ethiopia
The water tower of Africa. GERD's 5,150 MW makes the country a regional exporter, with transmission to Kenya, Sudan and Djibouti as the constraint.
Democratic Republic of the Congo
The sleeping giant: the Inga site alone could carry tens of gigawatts, yet electrification stays below 20% for want of grid and finance.
Namibia
The hydrogen frontrunner — world-class wind and solar in the Tsau //Khaeb region aimed at export-scale green ammonia.
Zimbabwe
The coal dilemma: an ageing Hwange fleet and drought-exposed Kariba hydro, with mandated diversification to 30% solar and wind by 2030.
South Sudan
The lowest base on the continent, under 5% electrification, where hardened mini-grids beat waiting for a national grid.